Trump is Running in 2024, Now What?
From the Mar-a-Lago investigation to the January 6th hearings, Donald Trump caught himself in a whirlwind of controversy during his presidency, going underground for a while after his term ended. Nonetheless, on November 15, 2022, the former president announced that he would be running for president once more in the upcoming 2024 election.
Trump’s announcement occurred just before the 2022 midterm elections that resulted in a less-than-expected turnout for the Republican party. Indeed, while the House of Representatives may have flipped in the Republicans’ favor, the margins are still razor thin, and in terms of the Senate, the Democrats managed to defy all odds and maintain their control of it. With the two halves of congress split, Washington can expect a legislative jam: the perfect setup for an emotionally charged campaign for Trump. In fact, his reliance on such dark rhetoric has already begun. "America's comeback starts right now," Trump told supporters, "Your country is being destroyed before your eyes."
However, as illustrated by the midterms, the odds are stacked against him. Democrats fared well in the midterms thanks to outrage about the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, a court case which established key legal precedence surrounding abortion in the United States. Additionally, voters made it clear that they didn't want extremes by rejecting all of the Trump candidates who agreed with his bogus election lies. In fact, only 7 of the 21 Trump-backed toss-up races ended up in his favor. As result, Republicans suffered defeats in tight Senate contests in purple states including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada. In the Georgia runoff elections, Trump-backed Herschel Walker lost, helping Democrats increase their margin of victory.
But things weren’t all bad for the Republicans. For example, inflation was the top concern among all voters in the midterm elections, according to exit polls. By a significant majority, voters said they trusted Republicans on the matter more than they did Democrats. Also, reversing a decades-long pattern of declining white voter participation in midterm elections, this midterms’ electorate was over three-quarters white: a group that has historically preferred the Republican party.
All in all, Trump's candidacy opens the door for a potential rematch with President Joe Biden, 80, who will most likely seek reelection in 2024. But a new candidate to take Trump’s place as a Republican figurehead has been on the rise: Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.
Many Republicans have started openly debating whether it makes sense to stick with the former president, especially with DeSantis emerging as a political star. In a national survey by the Marquette University Law School, 45%- 55% of Republican registered voters and 40%-60% of independent voters were reported as preferring DeSantis over Trump in a head-to-head contest in the primaries. So, what do we know about DeSantis? A few weeks ago, DeSantis was re-elected with ease as governor of Florida. So far, he’s known as a fervent conservative who caused controversy when he transported migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard. Still, he is viewed by many as a more responsible and less extreme version of Trump. This divide threatens the future presidential victory of the Republican party, and for now, the GOP base must hold onto their unity.
The playing field is somewhat even, however, Biden is currently facing a plethora of political challenges. With inflation still on the rise, gas prices increasing, and new Coronavirus strains continually emerging, Biden's popularity is deteriorating. The withdrawal of American soldiers from Afghanistan, which was heavily criticized by the American public for its poor execution under Biden, caused a decline in the president's support ratings in the summer and fall of 2021.
While Trump still enjoys a sizable following among Republican voters, he struggled to defeat Biden partly because he lost considerable support from the vast majority of suburban and independent voters nationwide. On the contrary, Biden has trouble sustaining the enthusiasm of even his supporters. In today's divisive political climate, winning over the small number of swing voters and retaining support within one’s own party are the keys to victory. If Biden cannot do the latter, then his desires for a second term may not be so fruitful.
“We will defend life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” Trump remarked during his campaign announcement, “this is not just a campaign, this is a quest to save our country.”
All America can do is sit back, and watch it all unfold.
BY ANAYA JOSHI